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East Pacific/2015/03E/Archive/5
Public Advisory TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 5 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER 400 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM CARLOS STRONGER BUT DISORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION... 14.1N 100.3W ABOUT 190 MI... 305 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 KT...50 MPH...85 KM/H MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 999 MB...29.50 INCHES PRESENT MOVEMENT...N AT 5 KT...6 MPH...10 KM/H DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 pm CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located at 14.1N, 100.3W, or about 190 miles (305 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 999 millibars (hPa; 29.50 inHg), and the system was moving north at 5 knots (6 mph, 10 km/h). Conditions are expected to be favorable over the next two days for gradual intensification as the storm parallels the Mexican coastline. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 pm CDT. $$ Forecaster TAWX14 Discussion TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER 400 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 Tropical Storm Carlos has taken on a disheveled appearance this afternoon. A majority of the shower and thunderstorm activity in association with the cyclone is weighted to the south and west quadrants, with the low-level circulation partially exposed to the north. This structure was supported by a 1402z SSMIS microwave pass. Water vapor imagery and UW-CIMSS analysis maps indicate about 15 knots of northeasterly shear affecting Carlos. Despite the disorganized appearance, 18z satellite intensity estimates were T3.0/45kt and T3.5/55kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. In addition, a 1901z ASCAT pass revealed several 35-40 kt wind barbs in the southeastern quadrant of the system. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt as a result. The intensity forecast for Tropical Storm Carlos is complicated. As aforementioned, moderate northeasterly shear is hindering the cyclone, and this shear is not expected to relent for a few days yet. On the other hand, sea surface temperatures remain exceptionally warm, near 30°C, and mid-level relative-humidity values are favorable further intensification. Hurricane intensity models are largely unchanged from yesterday, with the 18z SHIPS indicating a peak of 79 kt, the 18z LGEM indicating a peak of 78 kt, and the 12z HWRF indicating a peak of 82 kt. The statistical and dynamical model suites have come into better agreement since yesterday, and most models now show the center of Carlos remaining offshore throughout the forecast period. All said, the updated intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 72 hours, but shows a greater degree of intensification thereafter as the upper-level environment becomes more conducive. Positioned within a weak steering regime, Carlos has taken on a more northerly track since this morning, and the motion is now 10/5. A developing trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico is providing a weakness for Carlos to propagate toward, and so the current motion is expected to continue for the next 48 to 72 hours. Thereafter, a mid-level ridge stretched from the west-central East Pacific into western Mexico is expected to build eastward and force the cyclone on a more west-northwesterly heading. Global model guidance has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours, and both the GFS and ECMWF now suggest that Carlos may be a long-term threat to Baja California Sur. Track forecasts can vary wildly at 5 days and beyond, so current projections should be received with caution. The official forecast track is slightly east of the previous one in the near term to account for the northward motion, and it closely follows both the previous advisory and the model consensus thereafter. Regardless of the exact track, gusty winds and heavy rainfall within the outer bands of Tropical Storm Carlos are likely to impact popular vacation resorts along the southwestern Mexico coastline. INIT 11/2100Z 14.1N 100.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12HR 12/0600Z 14.3N 100.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24HR 12/1800Z 14.5N 100.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36HR 13/0600Z 14.6N 100.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48HR 13/1800Z 14.9N 100.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72HR 14/1800Z 15.2N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96HR 15/1800Z 16.3N 103.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 120HR 16/1800Z 16.9N 106.2W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ FORECASTER TAWX14